Field Guide

Reading the cards.

A plain-English guide to every part of an EarningsChaser prediction. If you're new to options trading, start with the basics below. If you already know your puts from your calls, jump straight to the field guide.

First time? · 5 min
Start with the basics
What is an option, what's a "spread," what does "implied move" actually mean. No prior options knowledge required.
Know the basics? · skim
Jump to the field guide
Sample card + every field broken down by section: header, stats, thesis, suggested play, risks.
Beginner Basics

If this is your first time.

Skip this section if you already trade options. Otherwise, read it once — the rest of the guide assumes these concepts.

What's earnings, and why does the stock move on it?
Once a quarter, every public company reports its financial results. Investors learn whether the business is doing better or worse than expected — and the stock can move sharply, often 5–15%, in a single session. The print itself happens either before market open (BMO) or after market close (AMC).
What's an option?
A contract that gives you the right to buy (a call) or sell (a put) 100 shares of a stock at a fixed "strike" price, on or before a specific expiry date. You pay a small premium upfront, and your max loss is that premium. If the stock moves your way, the option's value can multiply 2-10x.
"ATM," "OTM," "ITM" — what do those mean?
ATM (at-the-money): strike ≈ the stock's current price. Most sensitive to the move.
OTM (out-of-the-money): strike further from current price (above for calls, below for puts). Cheaper, less sensitive.
ITM (in-the-money): strike already past the current price in your favor. Expensive, behaves more like the stock.
What's a "spread"?
A two-leg trade where you simultaneously buy one option and sell another. The sold option offsets some of the cost of the bought one. You give up some upside in exchange for a much lower cost. Risk is capped: max loss = the net price you paid (a "debit spread") or the gap between strikes minus what you collected (a "credit spread").
What's a "straddle"?
Buying both a call and a put at the same strike (usually ATM). You profit if the stock moves big in either direction. Used when you expect a big move but don't know which way.
What's "IV crush"?
Before earnings, options get expensive because the market knows a big move is coming. The day after earnings, that uncertainty is resolved — and the same options become much cheaper, even if the stock didn't move much. This is "IV crush." It's why selling premium (credit spreads) is profitable when the model expects a smaller move than the market priced in.
What's the "implied move"?
This one's important enough to get its own worked example below. Short version: it's how much the options market is collectively betting the stock will move on earnings. We compare our prediction to it — that comparison is "edge."
Concept Deep-Dive

What "implied move" actually means.

It's the single most useful number on the card. Here's how it's computed and what it tells you.

Imagine AMD is trading at $352.50 right before earnings.

1
Look at the options expiring just after earnings (the "front-week" expiry). Find the at-the-money straddle — that's the call AND the put at the strike closest to where the stock is trading right now.
2
On AMD, the ATM call and put are at the $352.50 strike. The call costs around $17.92, the put around $15.18. Together, the straddle costs about $33.10.
3
That straddle price is what someone has to pay today to be made whole if the stock moves either direction. So it's the market's collective bet on the size of the post-earnings move. We then divide by the stock price and multiply by 0.85 (a standard adjustment that accounts for skew):
implied move = ($33.10 ÷ $352.50) × 0.85 × 100 = ~9.4%
4
That's it — the options market is pricing in roughly ±9.4% on AMD's print. If you bought that ATM straddle, AMD would need to move more than 9.4% in either direction by expiry for you to make money.
Why we care: the implied move is the market's prior. Our prediction is independent of it. If the model says "I think AMD will drop 10%" and the implied is 9.4%, the move is barely bigger than priced — small edge. But if the model said "I think it'll drop 15%," that's a meaningful edge. We compute that gap explicitly: edge = magnitude − implied.

How edge translates into a trade

This is the simple version of the play decision tree. Each of these has a card with a specific bet, but the logic is:

Field Guide

Every part of the card.

A real prediction (numbers illustrative) followed by what each field means, why it matters, and the one-line "TL;DR" if you're skimming.

AMD After close · May 5 ● NEW
▼ DOWN
10.0%
Implied
9.4%
Edge
+0.60
Confidence
0.66
Thesis

AMD enters this print with stretched positioning (+48.6% 30d), 93% Stocktwits bullish, 5 of last 6 beats closed red 1d, and ~$74.8M of CEO/CTO insider selling at $350 — the asymmetry favors a sell-the-news reaction modestly larger than the ±9.4% implied move.

Suggested Play
Bear put debit spreadDefined risk
BUYAMD260508P00352500$352.5 putmid $17.92
SELLAMD260508P00317500$317.5 putmid $5.11
Net debit $12.82
Breakeven $339.68
Max gain $22.19
Max loss $12.82
2 contracts at 1% of $10,000 NAV — Cost $2,564, Max risk $2,564, Max gain $4,438
Research only. Verify strikes against live chain before trading. Not investment advice.
Skip to a field
Ticker BMO / AMC pill Delta pills Direction + Magnitude Implied Move Edge Confidence Thesis Suggested Play Legs & Strikes Economics Position Sizing Key Risks Research-only line
Card header3 fields
Tickere.g. AMD
The stock symbol that's reporting earnings. Same as your broker uses.
TL;DR · the stock
BMO / AMC pilltiming
BMO (before market open): print drops at 7-8am ET, stock moves at 9:30 open.
AMC (after market close): print drops at 4-5pm ET, stock moves after-hours and in the next session.
Tells you when to enter and when to exit. For an AMC print, you'd typically enter into the close that same day. For BMO, the day before's close.
TL;DR · when does the move happen
Delta pillschange since last run
● NEW · first appearance in our daily email.
↻ down → up · direction flipped since yesterday — usually means new evidence arrived.
▲ conf 0.58 → 0.66 · confidence raised meaningfully (≥0.05). Model gaining conviction.
▼ conf 0.66 → 0.58 · confidence dropped. New evidence weakened the case.
A name showing up multiple days in a row with rising conviction is a different beast than one that just appeared today.
TL;DR · is the model getting more or less sure?
The call4 fields
Direction + Magnitudee.g. ▼ DOWN 10.0%
Direction is up, down, or uncertain. Magnitude is always positive and tells you how big the model thinks the move will be. Together: "AMD will drop ~10% on the print".

"Uncertain" is meaningful — the model has data, but it's split between bullish and bearish factors. Often paired with a vol-trade setup (long straddle) instead of a directional one.
TL;DR · which way and how much
Implied Movee.g. 9.4%
The expected move the options market is pricing in for the same earnings event, in either direction. Computed live from the front-week ATM straddle on the chain.

If you bought a 1-day ATM straddle, the breakeven is approximately ±this %. See the deep-dive worked example if this is unfamiliar.
TL;DR · what the market is pricing
Edgee.g. +0.60
Computed as magnitude − implied_move. The single most important number after confidence.

Positive · model expects a bigger move than priced → favors buying options (debit/spread).
Negative · model expects a smaller move than priced → favors selling premium (credit spread, IV crush).
Near zero · model agrees with the market → no asymmetric setup.

AMD example: magnitude 10.0% − implied 9.4% = edge +0.60. Slight asymmetry → debit spread.
TL;DR · how much we disagree with the options market
Confidencee.g. 0.66
A number between 0.50 and 1.00 — calibrated against historical hit rate. Not just a probability of winning; tied to actual outcomes.

From our actual data:
  • 0.40–0.60 bucket (n=132 events): 57.6% realized hit rate — basically random
  • 0.60–0.80 bucket (n=70 events): 80.6% realized hit rate — the actionable cliff
The default email filter is ≥ 0.60 for exactly this reason.
TL;DR · trust the call only when this is ≥ 0.60
Reasoning & suggested trade5 fields
Thesis2-3 sentences
A condensed summary of why the model thinks what it thinks. Cites specific data — historical reaction patterns, insider flows, options skew, sector context, news. Never generic boilerplate.

If the thesis doesn't make sense to you, don't take the trade. The thesis is your sanity check.
TL;DR · the model's reasoning — read it before trading
Suggested Playe.g. Bear put debit spread
A specific options trade matched to the prediction's profile (direction × edge × confidence). Removes the "ok, what do I actually buy?" step.

Each play has defined max risk by design — credit/debit spreads cap loss at the wing, straddles cap at the debit. The risk badge (Defined / Stock / Undefined) makes that explicit.
TL;DR · the specific trade to consider
Legs & Strikese.g. AMD260508P00352500
Each leg shows: BUY/SELL action, OCC contract symbol, strike, mid price.

OCC format breakdown: AMD260508P00352500 = AMD + expiry 26-05-08 + Put + strike $352.50. Plug it directly into your broker.

Mid price = (bid + ask) ÷ 2. Your fair-value reference. The bid/ask spread on options can be wide — always verify against live quote when entering.
TL;DR · the exact contracts to buy and sell, with current prices
Economics rowdebit / breakeven / max gain / max loss
The trade's payoff in dollars per contract:

Net debit · what you pay for the trade.
Net credit (when negative) · what the trade pays YOU.
Breakeven · the underlying price at expiry where you net zero.
Max gain · the most you can make per contract.
Max loss · the most you can lose per contract.

Risk/reward = max_gain ÷ max_loss. AMD example: $22.19 ÷ $12.82 = 1.73:1 (good). Anything below 1:1 R:R needs high confidence to be worth taking.
TL;DR · what's the trade worth, what's the risk
Position Sizinghow many contracts
How many contracts to buy at your account size + risk-per-trade settings.

contracts = floor(NAV × risk% / max_loss_per_contract)

Configured in .env: EC_NAV_DOLLARS (default $10k), EC_RISK_PER_TRADE_PCT (default 1%).

Even at 0.66 confidence, we miss 1 in 5 trades. Sizing on max loss means a string of misses doesn't blow up the account.
TL;DR · how many contracts your account can stomach
What could go wrong2 fields
Key Risks2-4 invalidators
Specific events or scenarios that would reverse the directional thesis. The model is forced to identify concrete, observable risks tied to the dossier.

Print the risks; close the trade if any of them happen during the holding period. If you take the trade and one of the listed risks materializes intraday before earnings, you have a clear exit signal.
TL;DR · list of things that would invalidate the call — your exit signals
Research-only lineitalic gray footer
"Research only. Verify strikes against live chain before trading. Not investment advice."

EarningsChaser is a research publication operating under the SEC's Publisher's Exemption (per SEC v. Lowe, 1985) — same legal framework as Stansberry, Motley Fool, Mauldin Economics. Predictions are general-market analysis, not personalized recommendations. Verify everything with your broker before trading. Past calibration is not a guarantee of future results.
TL;DR · always your final check before trading